ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
By now, I think we should recognize that low-volume rallies simply do not last – the odds tend to favor a return of most, if not all, those kinds of gains, sooner than later. Last week, I was particularly puzzled by a low-volume 2.4% rally on the S&P 500 that came on the heels of … Read more
Two weeks ago, I wrote “Sellers Step Out of the Way” to describe an impressive rally from oversold conditions on poor volume on May 27th. The S&P 500 closed up 3.3% that day, just short of the 200-day moving average (DMA). Today, the index finally hurdled over the 200DMA resistance for the first time in … Read more
I last wrote about the Australian dollar during its worst slide since the financial crisis. At the time, I claimed that the slide was probably good for a short-term bounce, but the currency could easily go even lower given macroeconomic concerns. Since then, the Australian dollar has firmed up nicely and formed a potential “W-bottom” … Read more
While the euro catches all the headlines about its tremendous slide against the U.S. dollar, the British pound has followed closely behind. The pound has lost 12% against the U.S. dollar since its January peak while the euro has lost 18% in that same time. The pound has lost 15% since its post-recovery peak in … Read more
(This is a guest post written by “Chenzo” of forexcharts.net) If any lesson was clear during the past few turbulent weeks of trading, it was that our markets are more closely entwined than ever. Perhaps this is a sign of our continuing globalization path, but the waves created by any financial event are traveling across … Read more
(This is a adapted repost from Inflation Watch) Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee Member Adam Posen tells CNBC in an interview (see below or click here) that stubbornly high inflation is keeping the Bank of England members up at night. However, Posen prefers this situation to deflation (as all central bankers would). Slack … Read more
The Australian dollar has been my single source of greatest pain during this market correction. I have long favored the Australian dollar as a play against the U.S. dollar. Even as the U.S. dollar index has rallied over 10% since hitting 16-month lows in November/December, the Australian dollar remained flat during most of that time … Read more
For 14 months the S&P 500 has trended upward from the March lows. However, with the S&P 500 now down 3.9% for the year, the last 8 of these 14 months have produced no net gain in the index. Another 3% drop will produce the first lower low on the index since July, 2009. The … Read more
For four days, the Swiss franc held all-time highs against the euro (all-time lows of 1.40 for EUR/CHF). As the euro continued to decline against the U.S. dollar, I positioned (twice) in anticipation of a violent break of this support level. As the apparent support continued to hold, it increasingly appeared that the Swiss National … Read more
It has been such a long time since I have seen the Fast Money crew on CNBC so uniformly fearful and wary about the stock market that I had to scribble a quick post on it as a bookmark for future review. The show’s sentiment is very consistent with the confluence and convergence of technical … Read more