ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
AT40 = 16.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (a drop of 14.2 percentage points to an 8-month low and the first day of an oversold period) AT200 = 38.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a drop of 7.6 percentage points to a 6-month low) VIX = … Read more
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming last Friday that seemed to reassure financial markets. The S&P 500 (SPY) finally closed at a new all-time high, and the U.S. dollar cooled off a bit again. Source: FreeStockCharts.com Source: TradingView.com Fundamentally, the speech contained no new news, but it did reaffirm … Read more
I am riding the long U.S. dollar index (DXY) trade based on two simple drivers: 1) a U.S. Federal Reserve pacing for four rate hikes in 2018, and 2) an expanding trade war, especially against China, which on balance will create more demand for U.S. dollars especially relative to those currencies who stand to lose … Read more
AT40 = 48.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 16.1 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary The market’s gains the last two days validated my expectation for a relief bounce. I used this bounce to make more bearish … Read more
AT40 = 66.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 1-day overbought) AT200 = 55.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 12.9 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary Flipping short-term bullish was fun while it lasted…all of two days. The Federal Reserve hiked interest … Read more