Europe

What I Learned Shorting the Euro

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The euro (FXE) has been one stubborn currency. The short euro trade taught me and reminded me to be patient, to stay focused on the underlying thesis until it is proven … Read more

Euro Continues 2014 Weakness As Inflation Drops Again, Unemployment Remains At Record

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 8, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Weakness continues for the euro (FXE) as 2014 seems to be confirming expectations I have outlined in previous posts. On January 7th, Eurostat reported eurozone inflation dropped to 0.8% in December … Read more

The British Pound And Euro Surge Despite Higher U.S. Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 30, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Friday, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield hit 3.0%, matching a high for the year. Rate are rising again across the yield curve. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve This steady … Read more

Early Signals for 2014? Major Breakouts Fade for the Euro and Pound

There were no economic reports of importance from the eurozone or from the United Kingdom to end the week. Yet, this absence did not prevent traders from sending the euro (FXE) and the British pound (FXB) into major overnight breakouts: a 25-month high for the euro and 28-month high for the pound against the U.S. … Read more

T2108 Update (December 11, 2013) – Upside Resolution Quickly Dissolves Into A Mix Possibilities

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Some Quick Implications As the U.S. Dollar Turns the Corner On Taper Fears Part Two

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 11, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The next statement on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve comes on December 18th. With taper expectations on the rise again thanks to the 204,000 jobs added in October, it … Read more

The Euro’s Resilience Is the Dollar’s Weakness

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 24, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) When I saw the Wednesday (October 23, 2013) headlines screaming that European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi indicated he had no hesitation about failing banks in upcoming, comprehensive stress tests, … Read more

Time to Watch the Forex Action Unfold: React, Not Anticipate

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 26, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) It has been a week since the Federal Reserve surprised the globe when it backed off from its earlier tough talk about bond tapering. The U.S. dollar index (UUP) plunged in … Read more

This May Is Not Likely To Hurt – But Just In Case, Here Are Some Hedging Ideas

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 6, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) 1965 to 1967 1969 to 1971 1981 to 1984 1998 to 2000 2010 to 2012 Since 1950, these are the ONLY years where the S&P 500 (SPY) finished the month of … Read more

May 2013 Was Fine As Expected; Now Brace for Summer Volatility

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 3, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Average, median, frequency, and context. These are all measures to take into consideration when assessing the odds of an event and its potential impact. It is something almost always lost in … Read more