ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Overall Assessment I am neutral on M/I Homes (MHO) which means I am content to stay on the sidelines until a fresh catalyst pushes me off the fence. The Q4 earnings report for M/I Homes was relatively straightforward. So I am at a loss to explain why the stock gapped down as much as it … Read more
Introduction When I wrote about the third quarter earnings for M.D.C. Holdings (MDC), I wondered aloud: “MDC’s next report on orders should deliver a very telling challenge to investor sentiment.” MDC seemed to deliver on orders in its Q4 earnings report, up 49% year-over-year and up 13% for the whole year. Investors were initially excited … Read more
AT40 = 38.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary Last week, I switched from neutral for the first time in, I believe, months. I downgraded to “cautiously bearish” because … Read more
A week ago, I laid out a game plan for playing Tesla (TSLA) earnings on January 29th based on a belief that the market was under-pricing TSLA call options. At the time, TSLA’s stock price sat at $510.50, and options priced in a +/- 10% gain for TSLA on January 31st. The week opened (on … Read more
Tesla (TSLA) has been on a tear. Analyst Expectations Analysts have stumbled over themselves to hike price targets: Canaccord Genuity from $375 to $515, Piper Sandler from $423 to $553, Oppenheimer from $385 to $612, and Jeffries from $400 to $600. At least three analysts have staunchly defended their bearishness: Credit Suisse reluctantly hiked its … Read more