ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in January, 2017 for December, 2016. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was rebounding strongly from a brief pullback from an earnings-driven 6-month high. I described the setup as a coiled spring. The coiled spring did not release to great effect, but earnings from … Read more
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, Inc. (PLKI) is one expensive stock, especially for a (fried chicken) restaurant: trailing P/E of 36.2, forward P/E of 28.9, price/sales of 5.5, and price/book of 187.4. PLKI most recently reported 4.7% year-over-year revenue growth and -1.9% earnings growth. (Data from Yahoo Finance). According to briefing.com, year-over-year revenue growth has stagnated in … Read more
I have long been a fan of Century Communities (CCS) and regional home builders in general. When I took profits in April of 2016 on my accumulated CCS position, I timed the sale to coincide with the end of the seasonally strong period for home builders. CCS was also struggling to break through resistance at … Read more
I raise yellow flags when companies implement a secondary stock offering soon after going IPO, especially after the stock has experienced a massive run-up. I get even more worried when the majority of the shares are being sold by shareholders rather than the majority of proceeds going into corporate investments. Two recent IPOs have popped … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
Three months ago, I reviewed earnings guidance from Meritage Homes (MTH) for second quarter 2016. The guidance and subsequent positive market reaction came within weeks of a first quarter earnings report that was very poorly received (13% loss on the day). I called the guidance “too late” because of the sour taste left by the … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in June, 2016 for May. At the time, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) had just reversed all its post-Brexit losses along with a sharp rebound in global financial markets. I expressed concern that ITB finally reached a top for the current cycle. The ETF instead … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more