ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The number $50 per ounce appeared in another discussion about silver. I first came across this target in James Turk’s theory about three stages for silver’s bull market with stage 2 beginning at $50. This time $50/ounce came up in an interview with Silver Wheaton’s CEO, Peter Barnes, as he discussed SLW’s earnings results on … Read more
For one day at least, sellers converged with stock market technicals to deliver a large one-day drop in the S&P 500. As it turned out, the three-month highs in T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their 40-day moving averages (DMAs), did matter after all. T2108 plunged along with the stock market for its worst … Read more
Over the past two days, I have crowed about silver, pondered whether gold will catch up, and marveled at the doubling in the S&P 500 from the March, 2009 lows. Yet, I failed to put the stories together into one chart for proper context: the S&P 500 priced in gold. Of course, almost every gold … Read more
Silver finally hit fresh highs on Thursday, and I am now forced to pull out “Plan B” on re-establishing a position in the precious metal. I had expected the “cooling off” period to end with a retest of the 200-day moving average (DMA) and an opportunity to scale back into silver at my own, leisurely … Read more
Coffee prices have soared along with most other commodities over the past year and more. For example, the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Coffee Total Return Sub-Index ETN (aka JO) is up 70% since the end of 2009. The last earnings results from Starbucks (SBUX) demonstrated the stress from these higher coffee prices. The company slightly lowered … Read more
I did not think the dollar would test the critical multi-year support line this soon. I thought the prospects for an economic recovery that is looking stronger than in competing developed economies would be sufficient to give the dollar a helping hand up despite the Federal Reserve’s best attempts to keep grinding the currency into … Read more
The “cooling off” of silver and gold has unfolded very slowly over several months. On Thursday, this process entered yet another phase. This time, silver made a clean and strong break below its 50-day moving average (DMA). Silver even made its first lower low since the latest rally began in late summer. Gold has spent … Read more
The massive and historic floods in Australia have driven coal prices up. This is particularly important for steel since Australia exports 2/3 of the world’s coal used for making steel (coking coal). Steelmakers have already been struggling with increasing input costs, so the Australian floods are sure to pinch profits further. At the close of … Read more
The cooling process for gold and silver has moved slowly and deliberately. The first step featured a fight through parabolic upswings, especially for silver. The next step finally seems underway with the first break of primary (short-term) uptrends. Gold closed below its 50-day moving average (DMA) for the first time since August. Silver closed below … Read more
Lately, it seems I have been pointing out more and more stocks in breakout formations. It makes the skeptic in me a little wary and nervous, but I will keep rolling with what works. And steel stocks have finally started working over the past month. I have to assume that the market is seeking out … Read more