ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary A great stock market divergence continued last week. However, the market overall is looking more and more resilient as it continues to digest inflation fears. Even the biggest victim of the great divergence, the NASDAQ (COMPQX), remains well above its lows for the month. A very dovish session with Federal Reserve Chair … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A great stock market divergence clarified itself last week. Growth stocks, especially the expensive and/or speculative kind, took a back seat to industrial and consumer names and other stocks primed to benefit most from the global economies reopening on a fresh wave of liquidity. This divergence renders a generalized view of the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market got quite tricky last week. A day after buyers re-established control, sellers returned with a sustained fury. The selling on Thursday reflected the stock market’s split personality while the follow-up selling on Friday seemed broader. The pressure on the the stock market looks like an ominous setup for March … Read more
Mortgage rates are on the rise following record high lumber prices. Together, these measures are starting to weigh on the stocks of home builders. 30-Year Mortgage Rate The 30-Year fixed rate mortgage average in the United States hit 2.97% on Thursday, February 25th. Not only is this rate a 6-month high, but also the rise … Read more
Stock Market Commentary After sweeping away bearish signals, the stock market moved right into overbought territory last week. The week started with a small gap up to all-time highs, and the stock market never looked back. More importantly, the volatility index (VIX) hit a new low since the stock market broke down almost a year … Read more
Stock Market Commentary One hundred and fifty minutes. The bearish signal that hit the stock market after the last overbought period ended essentially lasted just 150 minutes. Buyers stepped into the market on Monday after lunchtime on the East Coast and essentially barely took a pause until the last 2 hours of trading today (Wednesday, … Read more
Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 90.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (overbought 13 of last 14 trading days)AT200 = 37.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (highest since February 26, 2020)VIX = 24.5Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary The on-going recovery in the stock market … Read more
AT40 = 21.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2nd day outside oversold conditions)AT200 = 10.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 40.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary “Swift and sweeping fiscal and monetary policy responses from U.S. officials will ultimately support stock prices from … Read more
AT40 = 3.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (23rd oversold day)AT200 = 5.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 65.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary First a dose of hope: “Coronavirus treatment: Palo Alto woman recovers from coronavirus after … Read more
“…note that the bond market went parabolic last week; iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) soared 5.2% alone on Friday. Parabolic run-ups are built NOT to last. The ironic next move will be for bond yields to soar on inflationary expectations from super-easy monetary policies and super-stimulative, turbo boosted fiscal policies with debts … Read more