ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: The expected first of the month buying only showed up in the last hour of trading, but it still made an important impression. The recovery created a picture perfect bounce off the oversold threshold. At the same time the S&P 500 perfectly tapped its May, 2021 closing low before recovering. The volatility … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Trading extremes led to a snapback rally as expected. However, the rally was short-lived as bear market action quickly resumed. The stock market looks like it is on the way to oversold trading conditions as March closing lows failed to hold as support. Fear is palpable as traders and investors scramble to … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The runway for (short-term) bearishness has greatly shortened. The classic safety trades sprung to life to add exclamation points to the broadening sell-off. After over 6 weeks of near relentless losses, the Japanese yen (FXY) caught a strong bid. Inflation fears returned to the background as traders eased into Treasury bonds (per … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market chopped into bearish conditions in the previous week. My reasons for bearishness were not obvious, but, as is typical, market breadth dynamics led my thinking. Last week, the stock market flagged very clear signs of bearishness. Resistance to the Fed in the form of disbelief in the process of … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: As expected, the S&P 500 took the spotlight in the latest week of trading. Earlier I noted that the index was a breakdown away from bearish trading conditions. The S&P 500 obliged and dropped under its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below). However, the bearish call is challenging because sellers … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The S&P 500 takes the spotlight going into trading this week. The index is a breakdown away from officially ushering in a return to bearish trading conditions. Trading last week completed the stock market’s return to the reality of macro conditions. Fed-speak dominated the air as sellers followed through on topping out … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: How many times and how many ways does the Fed need to communicate its seriousness about normalizing monetary policy and fighting inflation? Apparently, the answer for Fed-speak is many times and a LOT of ways. Fed Governor Lael Brainard delivered one way with a speech on Tuesday titled “Variation in the Inflation … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Throw out all the gradual scenarios for a potential climax. The stock market carved out a quick crest that puts the current rally at risk. Out-performance from small-cap stocks and late saves for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ barely averted a technical setup for a bearish reversal. The stock market goes … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Forget recession fears. Forget an aggressively hawkish Fed. Forget the stock chart holdouts. Bullish belief delivered another powerful confirmation of what has become an exceptionally strong bounce from March’s nervous test of the last oversold point. The rally launched from the March lows and barely rested or paused. The rally has been … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market finished the week with confirmations of the bullish signals that were hard to believe. Accordingly, the follow-through buying served to uphold bullish belief despite the negative headwinds that scream with bearish overtones. Looking back, the current V-move upward looks swift. However, letting bullishness ride through this swing has taken … Read more