ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Gold, and by extension the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), has had a rough year. However, based on a historic flip in speculative positioning in gold futures, a bottom is likely in for GLD. According to the tweet and chart below, the net speculative positioning in gold recently went net negative for the first time in … Read more
AT40 = 64.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 12.0 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary Once again, a tried and true bearish signal delivered. However this success came with a tremendous caveat: a simultaneously … Read more
AT40 = 55.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 16.9 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Commentary The stock market faded from bullish undertones and back into the resting position. Now we can just look back at what … Read more
At the beginning of the month I described what I called “maximum bearishness for silver.” For the first time in at least 10 years, speculators flipped net bearish on silver. At the same time, speculators remained quite bullish on gold. I decided to initiate a pairs trade going long iShares Silver Trust (SLV) calls and … Read more
For the first time since at least 2008, speculators flipped bearish on silver. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders Speculative net contracts have trended downward for about a year and approached zero in December around the time the Federal Reserve last hiked rates. Yet, I did not think it was “possible” for positioning to go … Read more