ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary In recent months, the housing market experienced several impacts from declining mortgage rates. An accelerating improvement in consumer and builder sentiment point the path toward a strong spring selling season despite on-going issues of affordability and inventory availability (in the existing home market). While housing starts pulled back from November’s … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary Of all the November housing data, housing starts provided the clearest support for the sharp rebound in the stocks of home builders the last two months. In parallel, builder sentiment has likely bottomed in anticipation of the positive impact of falling mortgage rates. On the other hand, existing home sales … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The October housing data showed some further softening, including a revision of the new home sales data that erased a breakout. Yet, November was a blockbuster month for launching the seasonal strength in the stocks of home builders. Many of these stocks hit all-time highs in a race ahead of … Read more
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) was just about as bearish on the housing market as it allows itself to get. In its latest press release on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), the NAHB declared “…the housing market is now slowing.” The HMI plunged from 77 to 69 in a sign that … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary An aggressively hawkish Federal Reserve has changed the game for the housing market. After falling behind the curve and failing to start the rate hike cycle last year, America’s central bank is now desperately scrambling to catch up without causing a recession. The housing market is ground zero for the … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I discussed the prospects for the impact of higher interest rates. I concluded there could be little impact on prices. Those dynamics could soon be overshadowed by the impacts of a global economic war and the declining sentiment that comes from watching the misery … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary A hawkish Federal Reserve has changed the game for the housing market. At first, I thought the normalization in monetary policy would generate a “settling in” for the housing market. However with inventories tight, a scarcity in available labor, rising material costs, and a dysfunctional supply chain, higher rates may … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The story of housing remained relatively steady for most of the year: low inventory, rising prices, strong demand, low interest rates, and the desire for more space, especially in the suburbs. In my last Housing Market Review, I explored the market as a nexus of economic recovery and inflation. In … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The home builder stock buying season started on a firm foundation. November delivered strong follow-through across a broad range of housing-related stocks even as the housing data settles into a period of normalization. Demand for new and existing homes is well off last year’s heated levels. Supply remains extremely tight … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In the last Housing Market Review, I described the growing calm in the housing market data that contrast with the sell-off in home builder stocks. That sell-off worked in sync with the general stock market. The rebound in October also worked in parallel with the general stock market. As a … Read more