The 401K Stock Market Holds Support At the August Extreme – Above the 40 (August 16, 2019)

AT40 = 33.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 43.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 18.5Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (from neutral) Stock Market Commentary The extreme of August held as support…just barely. Sneaky Resilience The S&P 500 (SPY) gapped up 1.4% … Read more

Rate Cut Cheer Not Yet Enough to Push Stock Market To Overbought – Above the 40 (July 12, 2019)

After a bullish run-up, AT40 (T2108) struggled all week to break through the overbought threshold.

AT40 = 68.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (essentially matches the 2019 high and is a new 10-month high)VIX = 12.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary After the report on June jobs, financial markets got … Read more

A Trade War Truce Defies the Bad News Narrative for Rate Cuts – Above the 40 (June 28, 2019)

AT40 = 60.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Trade War The search for news bad enough to convince the Federal Reserve to cut rates continues. The weekend began with news … Read more

Bullard Busts the Myth of A Big Rate Cut for July

In recent days, market pundits have excitedly talked about the prospects of the Federal Reserve getting so dovish that it would be willing to make a bold statement with a rate cut of 50 basis points for the July 31st announcement on monetary policy. Such a move would be quite dramatic given the Fed has … Read more

From Loitering to Breakout: Stocks Look for Bad News Worthy of Rate Cuts – Above the 40 (June 21, 2019)

AT40 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market is officially in bizarro world. The stock market is breathlessly rallying in anticipation of rate cuts that will come … Read more