ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
I have a good friend that comes up with interesting theories about relationships in the stock market. Recently, he claimed that “more often than not”, on a day where the big cap stocks gain and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) does not gain, IWM will experience a daily gain on the next trading day. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Instead of climbing a wall of worry, the market is climbing a wall of frustration (I stole that from a friend of mine). No matter what economic indicators bears stare at to declare impending doom, the jobs market just keeps coming in hot month-after-month. While a widening swath of stocks are breaking … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A bearish divergence is well underway in the stock market. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ rally, a key bearish trading signal persists in market breadth. The previous week, market breadth created a strong bearish signal by slicing below the overbought threshold. This key bearish trading signal was reinforced by last week’s … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A decisive end to the extended overbought period signaled the arrival of bearish conditions last week. Bears boldly sold for one more day before a “stock bulls taunt” forced suddenly hesitant bears into a partial retreat. A sharp market divergence is now taking hold. While the major indices rallied off support and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Bring on the bears…The process terminating a historically extended overbought period started with the first trading day of the year. While the S&P 500 recovered from the year’s initial fit of selling, small caps did not. The sagging fortunes of small caps have now returned the related ETF to bear market territory. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Just one day after stocks narrowly avoided bearish conditions, a looming end to this extended overbought rally brought the stock market right back to the edge. Market breadth is at its lowest point since the overbought period began over a month ago. This tension means that the market may become less willing … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last month, the stock market seemed to conclude that the threat of inflation had all but disappeared. Given the resulting celebration is one of the key drivers of the current extended overbought rally, today’s report on December’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) took on some significance. So when CPI missed “expectations” on the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary As new year weakness continues in the stock market, a serious tension has emerged in the message of the market between profit-taking versus a sustained top. An extended overbought period raises the stakes for the resolution of this tension. As long as the stock market remains overbought, I will assume the current … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Exactly two weeks ago, the stock market fell out of bed. I called the abrupt move the rally’s third strike. However, buyers jumped right back into the fray and overcame that third strike with a rally right to the second to last trading day of the year. So far, the new year … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Signature stock market moments capped a remarkable year for the stock market. Two months of nearly relentless buying delivered a stunning 70% of the gains for the S&P 500 in 2023 after bulls exploded out of oversold trading conditions. Housing-related stocks soared even more as financial markets celebrate the presumed end of … Read more