Inflation Report

The British Pound and Carney Are Deja Vu All Over Again

“There’s already great speculation about the exact timing of the first rate hike and this decision is becoming more balanced. It could happen sooner than markets currently expect… …The need for internal balance – to use up wasteful spare capacity while achieving the inflation target – will likely require gradual and limited interest rate increases … Read more

Time For A Little Harvesting Even As Tailwinds Strengthen For The British Pound

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 14, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} These quotes came from Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England (BoE), in response to questions during the Q&A period of the November Inflation Report. I believe Carney reminded … Read more

The British Pound Finds Fresh Support In The UK’s Economic About-Face

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 7, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The theme was consistent for the Markit economic indicators for August: the UK economy rebounded sharply and strongly from the initial post-Brexit blues. Almost across the board, measures of economic activity … Read more

A Policy Island for the Fed: The Bank of England and U.S. Economic Data Isolate the Fed

This past week was an important one for monetary policy. The Bank of England (BoE) made clear it is willing to put off rate hikes as long as necessary. Despite its words that suggest otherwise, the Bank is NOT biased for action. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made it clear that, all else being … Read more

2013 Forex Outlook: More of the Same for the British Pound

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Most of the clues required for the British pound’s direction for 2013 are contained in the Bank of England’s last Inflation Report back on November 14, 2012. The British pound enjoyed … Read more

Stronger Take Home Pay and A Productivity Puzzle Tug on the U.K.’s Economy

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 15, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Bank of England’s latest Inflation Report (August 8th) included two items that I found particularly interesting: The Bank of England (BoE) expects the squeeze in take home pay in the … Read more

Bank of England’s Inflation Report Provides No Cheer for the British Pound

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 4, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I have followed the Bank of England’s quarterly Inflation Report since November, 2009 as a way to gain insight into the UK economy and the prospects for the British pound (FXB). … Read more