ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
It did not take long. Two days after I identified a Bollinger Band squeeze on iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB), the technical chart pattern resolved to the downside. NIB has lost 11.9% over this time. Source: FreeStockCharts.com At current levels, NIB has confirmed a top from its 19-month high: a breakdown below the 50-day … Read more
AT40 = 55.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 16.9 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Commentary The stock market faded from bullish undertones and back into the resting position. Now we can just look back at what … Read more
At the beginning of the month I described what I called “maximum bearishness for silver.” For the first time in at least 10 years, speculators flipped net bearish on silver. At the same time, speculators remained quite bullish on gold. I decided to initiate a pairs trade going long iShares Silver Trust (SLV) calls and … Read more
For the first time since at least 2008, speculators flipped bearish on silver. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders Speculative net contracts have trended downward for about a year and approached zero in December around the time the Federal Reserve last hiked rates. Yet, I did not think it was “possible” for positioning to go … Read more
AT40 = 64.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – ended a 1-day overbought period AT200 = 62.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.7 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary It figures that just one day after the stock market finally crossed into overbought territory, it … Read more