A Closer Look At Lane’s Drive That Weakened the Canadian Dollar

There is nothing like a significantly stronger currency to get central banks to take pause. I cannot recall in recent memory a time where a little known (or under-appreciated?) Deputy Director of the Bank of Canada made a notable impact on the Canadian dollar. Such an event occurred on Monday, September 18th. Deputy Director Timothy … Read more

A Recharge for the Canadian Dollar Bull

A little over a week ago, I explained why I put the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar (FXC) on shorter leashes. Canada’s extremely strong second quarter GDP report at the end of August just loosened that leash a little. Statistics Canada reported 2Q real GDP growth of 1.1%. The annualized growth rate of 4.5% … Read more

Forex Critical: Putting The Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar On Shorter Leashes

Currency speculators have not been this bullish on the Mexican peso in about four years. The Canadian dollar (FXC) has enjoyed such bullishness for a year longer. Source for charts: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders I have traded alongside these bulls for several months now, but I decided this week to pull in the reins … Read more

Forex Critical – Key Trends Continuing for the Aussie, Loonie, and Yen

The latest CFTC data on the Commitments of Traders (CoT) showed some key trends continuing: new heights of bullishness on the Australian dollar (FXA) and the Canadian dollar (FXC), and on-going depths of bearishness for the Japanese yen (FXY). Speculators increased net longs on the Australian dollar for the 8th week in a row. Speculators … Read more

Forex Critical: The Canadian Dollar Ignites But Was That Intended?

{updated to include commentary on The Guggenheim Canadian Energy Income ETF (ENY)} On Monday, June 12, 2017, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada Carolyn A. Wilkins delivered a speech at the Asper School of Business in Winnipeg, Manitoba that was firmly bullish on the Canadian economy. The market’s reaction was swift and equally … Read more

Jobs and Oil Spell Relief for the Canadian Dollar After Speculators Ramp Bearish Bets

Canada and the U.S. reported jobs numbers for April at the same time last Friday (8:30am Eastern). From the surface, it looks like traders thought MUCH more highly of the Canadian report. The U.S. dollar plunged against the Canadian dollar (FXC) and erased the entire week’s gain for USD/CAD. Source: FreeStockCharts.com Interestingly, traders took a … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Flip the Script on the Canadian Dollar

Just three weeks ago, speculators sent their bullishness on the Canadian dollar to a 4-year high. I followed along with the speculators and accumulated a short USD/CAD position. Two weeks passed before the payoff. It arrived in the form of an anti-dollar reaction to a rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Source: FreeStockCharts.com With … Read more

Forex Critical: Bullish Measure on Canadian Dollar Reaches 4-Year High

According to the latest CFTC data, speculators accumulated their largest net long position on the Canadian dollar (FXC) since February, 2013. This 4-year high in bullishness sticks out so much only because speculators have spent most of these four years being very bearish on the Canadian dollar. Prior to 2013, net longs were regularly 2 … Read more

Forex Critical: Rate Expectations Allow A Rise In Commodity Currencies

Currency traders spent much of 2016 cycling through bullish and bearish periods on the Australian dollar (FXA) and the Canadian dollar (FXC), the Western world’s two biggest commodity currencies. In particular, bullishness on both currencies waned rapidly going into the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate hike in December. Speculators adjusted positions to net flat and then … Read more

U.S. Dollar Weakness Dominating the Canadian Dollar Trade

The U.S. dollar index (DXY0) has started 2017 on a notable losing streak. The index’s clean close today below 100 is the latest confirmation of that weakness. The U.S. dollar index continued its dribbling down the lower part of Bollinger Bands (BBs) that define the current downtrend. Source: StockCharts.com This extension of weakness has complicated … Read more