The Australian Dollar Should Face Increased Pressure from Policy Divergence

Australia’s persistently weak inflation data has now convinced the market that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is much more likely than not to cut interest rates at its November 3, 2015 meeting on monetary policy. Source: The ASX RBA Rate Indicator Combine this flip in market sentiment with the mirror image of the market … Read more

Australian Dollar Slammed By Inflation Data – More Weakness Likely

On October 28, 2015 (Australian time), the Australian dollar (FXA) was slammed by Australia’s September, 2015 inflation data. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a 1.5% year-over-year increase in its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. While inflation is still hovering above the lows for the post-crisis period, this is the longest stretch … Read more

No Chinese Support for Wynn Resorts and No Prop for Sinosteel

“Earlier this month, it is reported in the local Macau media that the Director delays to Macau and mainland China that the central government is going to help support Macau’s economy. And these comments followed similar statements from Macau’s Chief Executive last month. I think no real specifics were given. So my question to you … Read more

Glencore’s Correlation With Market Sentiment and An End to the Collapse In Commodities

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 14, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} This quote is the entirety of a terse and pointed press release that commodity giant Glencore (GLCNF) (GLNCY) delivered to calm market fears about the company’s business. This release came … Read more

T2108 Update (October 8, 2015) – The S&P 500 Continues A Strong Run Toward Overbought Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (October 7, 2015) – The S&P 500 Reaches Its Highest and Most Important Post-Oversold Close

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Australian Dollar Healthcheck: An Extended Period of Weakness Remains Ahead

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 1, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} RBA Governor Glenn Stevens found a clever way to imply that the decline in the Australian dollar (FXA) still has a ways to go. First, he implied that the terms … Read more

T2108 Update (September 15, 2015) – Another Oversold Period Ends As Volatility Continues Pre-Fed Decline

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (September 8, 2015) – A Historic Oversold Period Ends While Buyers Still Hold the Burden of Proof

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (August 28, 2015) – The Stock Market Remains Oversold, But It’s Almost Like Nothing Happened

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more