T2108 Update (January 6, 2016) – The S&P 500 Hits 3-Month Low But Still Not Oversold

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Japanese Yen Flashes Red for 2016

Trading is off to a rough start in the new year. China kicked off the fireworks for 2016 with a trading halt. From Bloomberg: “The worst-ever start to a year for Chinese shares triggered a trading halt in more than $7 trillion of equities, futures and options, putting the nation’s new market circuit breakers to … Read more

The U.S. Dollar Should Remain On Center Stage Despite Market Tentativeness

The U.S. dollar index ended 2015 on a strong note, but it has yet to develop any post-Fed momentum. Of the ten trading days following the rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the index has closed below that day’s intraday high five days. Notably, the intraday LOW of that day is still holding strong … Read more

How to Trade the Euro After the “Draghi Drubbing”

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 7, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), apparently decided not to follow the now well-established playbook for steering markets nearly perfected by the Federal Reserve: Guide the market to … Read more

T2108 Update (December 9, 2015) – A Stock Market Hurtling Toward Oversold Trading Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (December 3, 2015) – The Draghi Drubbing Drives Follow-Through Selling

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Getting Ready to Tip-Toe Around the Euro

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The European Central Bank (ECB) next makes a statement on monetary policy on December 3, 2015. The market is apparently eagerly anticipating an announcement from ECB President Mario Draghi that delivers … Read more

A Slow Grind: The Two Pillars Of Swiss Monetary Policy – Negative Rates and Franc Intervention

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 9, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On November 3, 2015, Thomas Jordan, the Chair of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) spoke in front of the Investment Strategists Association of Geneva on the topic “The SNB’s monetary policy … Read more

U.S. Dollar Stalls Even As Odds For January Rate Hike Firm

The market wasted no time. Within two days, currency markets reversed all the losses the euro (FXE) suffered in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s October decision on monetary policy. In that decision, the Fed cleverly crafted words to convince the market that its first rate hike is indeed imminent. With renewed signs of strength … Read more

Central Banks Help Maintain Dollar Index’s Trading Range

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 26, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost two weeks ago, markets appeared ready to price in a first Fed rate cut way out into June, 2016 (essentially neverland). The U.S. dollar index (UUP) sat at one of … Read more