The Canadian Dollar And Oil: An Imperfect Partnership

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 21, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) A year ago, the Canadian dollar (FXC) hit my then annual 1.08 target for the USD/CAD currency pair. I next contemplated setting a much more aggressive year-long target of 1.16. In … Read more

T2108 Update (October 6, 2014) – Resistance Caps the Oversold Bounce

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Forex Setup Week (August 31, 2014) – Critical Test of QE2 Resistance for the U.S. Dollar

Ten days ago, I thought the U.S. dollar (UUP) was over-extended and due for a correction. A cooling never happened. Instead, the dollar index continued climbing the upward trending channel between the first and second Bollinger Bands (BBs). Now, the dollar index faces an even more critical test: the presumed ceiling of a trading range … Read more

An Over-Extended U.S. Dollar and A Complete Reversal for Gold

The U.S. dollar (UUP) is at 11-month highs. The dollar index is finally showing the strength many expected from the beginning of 2014 in anticipation of strong economic numbers and subsequent rate hikes. The chart above shows that the U.S. dollar index has been on a relative tear since bouncing off its QE3 reference price … Read more

A Subtle Change In Tone As the U.S. Dollar Achieves Year-to-Date Highs

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 31, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The U.S. dollar index (UUP) has increased steadily all of July. The dollar index has gained 2% month-to-date. This matches a similar gain from the dollar’s last low in early May … Read more

T2108 Update (June 4, 2014) – Bearish Divergence Ahead of Highly Anticipated Eurozone Monetary Decision

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (March 11, 2014) – A Cascade of Warnings Awaiting Confirmation

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The British Pound And Euro Surge Despite Higher U.S. Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 30, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Friday, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield hit 3.0%, matching a high for the year. Rate are rising again across the yield curve. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve This steady … Read more

Some Quick Implications As the U.S. Dollar Turns the Corner On Taper Fears Part Two

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 11, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The next statement on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve comes on December 18th. With taper expectations on the rise again thanks to the 204,000 jobs added in October, it … Read more

Some Quick Implications As the U.S. Dollar Turns the Corner On Taper Fears Part Two

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 11, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The next statement on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve comes on December 18th. With taper expectations on the rise again thanks to the 204,000 jobs added in October, it … Read more