ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary A decisive end to the extended overbought period signaled the arrival of bearish conditions last week. Bears boldly sold for one more day before a “stock bulls taunt” forced suddenly hesitant bears into a partial retreat. A sharp market divergence is now taking hold. While the major indices rallied off support and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last month, the stock market seemed to conclude that the threat of inflation had all but disappeared. Given the resulting celebration is one of the key drivers of the current extended overbought rally, today’s report on December’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) took on some significance. So when CPI missed “expectations” on the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary As new year weakness continues in the stock market, a serious tension has emerged in the message of the market between profit-taking versus a sustained top. An extended overbought period raises the stakes for the resolution of this tension. As long as the stock market remains overbought, I will assume the current … Read more
Stock Market Commentary I earlier wrote about a forlorn stock market writing a love note to the Federal Reserve. This love note comes in the form of a basket of sell-offs. The selling is so broad and so deep that traders could throw a dart and find descriptive stock charts. The examples below are some … Read more
Stock Market Commentary My bullishness waned with last week’s manic trading action. I called the resulting patterns choppiness toppiness to reflect a biding sense that the market is churning out some kind of lasting top. Still, under the surface of the churn is a fresh divergence. The stock market is full of digital lows and … Read more
AT40 = 19.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st day oversold)AT200 = 20.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (34-month low)VIX = 21.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish CommentaryThe stock market is oversold again as a bearish divergence to start the week came to its “logical conclusion.” AT40 (T2108), … Read more
Adobe Systems, Inc. (ADBE) surged as high as 17% today after news leaked about a private meeting between ADBE and Microsoft (MSFT) company executives. The most salient rumor surrounding this meeting is that MSFT is considering acquiring ADBE in addition to other strategic options for going after Apple’s (AAPL) dominance in the mobile device market. … Read more
Adobe Systems, Inc. (ADBE) was punished on Wednesday for an earnings report that produced guidance slightly below analyst expectations. The stock dropped as much as 26% after ADBE guided Q4 earnings to $0.48-0.54 EPS vs. $0.53 analyst consensus and Q4 revenues $950M to $1.0B vs. $1.03B analyst consensus (from briefing.com). The severity of the sell-off … Read more