T2108 Update (December 15, 2016) – The S&P 500 Struggles to Return to Pre-Fed Momentum

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (December 14, 2016) – A Fed Hangover Bursts the Overbought Rally

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (November 28, 2016) – The S&P 500 Takes A Breather On Overbought’s Edge

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (November 14, 2016) – Market Momentum Hiding in Plain Sight

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Trump Change: The U.S. Dollar Swings Wildly from Election Despair to Elation

In my last post, I wrote about the small solace I took in profits on my short AUD/JPY position as the Japanese yen (FXY) surged in response to a looming victory by Donald Trump for the U.S. Presidency. At the time, I closed out the position assuming that currency bearishness was over-extended by quick-trigger negative … Read more

T2108 Update (November 8, 2016) – A Bracketed S&P 500 Rally Slams Into the U.S. Presidential Election

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

OPEC’s Latest Stumbles Create the Next Opportunity for an Oil-Driven Pairs Trade

In a previous post on the stock market, I noted how commodity-related plays were apparently benefiting from a sagging U.S. dollar index (DXY0). I failed to note that oil was (and is) a glaring exception. Oil futures fell around 9% for the week. This plunge was enough to completely reverse last month’s rally for United … Read more

T2108 Update (November 1, 2016) – Divergences Confirmed: Stock Market Sags to the Edge of Oversold

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (October 28, 2016) – Divergences Weigh Further on the Stock Market

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Pressure Builds for a December Rate Hike

The creep toward a December rate hike continues. The 30-Day Fed Fund Futures now show a 69.5% chance of a rate hike in December by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This is a full 11.1 percentage points above the odds in the wake of the Fed’s September 21st pronouncement on monetary policy. Source: CME FedWatch The … Read more