Not Oversold Enough for My Taste – The Market Breadth

AT50 (MMFI) declined throughout the week with Friday's jump holding the February intraday low as support.

Stock Market Commentary Stock market angst reached a kind of crescendo last week. Poor economic data and bad news – including a plunge in consumer confidence, a 180 degree reversal in the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP growth projection from +2.3% to -1.5%, risk-off trading in cryptocurrencies (apparently due to a massive hack of ByBit), and … Read more

How Home Builder Stocks Trade In A Seasonal Pattern (2025 Update)

seasonal pattern home builders (Credit: Housing Market by free pictures of money on Flickr)

Introduction The U.S. housing market follows a seasonal pattern. The spring selling season typically represents the year’s peak of activity in the housing market. During this time, households try to settle into a new home before summer travel or well ahead of the Fall start to the next school year. Like retailers who eagerly anticipate … Read more

After the Plunge, A Quick Rebound Tests New Resistance – The Market Breadth

After the Plunge, A Quick Rebound Tests New Resistance – The Market Breadth (Source: juicesandmilks on Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/photos/66006481@N00/3137875524)

Stock Market Commentary The dust is settling ever so slightly on the stock market’s post-Fed plunge. The stock market shifted from euphoria to oversold on a day that woke up everyone to a potentially new market reality. I say “potentially” because all year the market has been hit with bearish catalysts and quickly bounced back … Read more

Navigating Momentum Madness with TSLA, ARKK, and Market Breadth

TSLA Revs Higher Incredibly, Tesla Inc (TSLA) has nearly doubled since a loud thud greeted the company’s robotaxi rollout. That bearish breakdown below support at the 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line in the chart below) now looks quite quaint. Since then, a 21.9% post-earnings gain and an initial 14.8% post-earnings pop have ignited … Read more

Post-Election Reversal Tests Support After Confirming Bearish Signal – The Market Breadth

The S&P 500 (SPY) roundtripped to its post-election open, converging with the October high and 20DMA support.

Stock Market Commentary The stock market has a natural law of “physics.” Overly enthusiastic trading, whether up or down, eventually meets an opposite and sometimes equal force. This natural instability of extremes forms a basis of my market breadth trading rules. The enthusiastic post-election surge exhausted buyers enough to create a post-election reversal. Moreover, my … Read more