ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The Breakdown Big events can create distinct trading goalposts. Elon Musk’s big reveal for the Cybertruck created the next big goalpost for Tesla (TSLA). The event delivered a bonus with the amount of derision and scorn heaped upon the stark and sharp ugliness of the truck and the big double fail on the test of … Read more
The ETF Performance The 2019 seasonal trade for home builders was a dramatic one that departed from the typical script. The iShares US Home Construction (ITB) suffered greatly in the late 2018 sell-off. The housing market softened as one of the most notable features of the sell-off in the stock market. Several home builders made … Read more
AT40 = 28.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.9Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (see caveats below) Stock Market Commentary Presidential Decrees “Q Six hundred and twenty-three points — that’s what the Dow was down today … Read more
AT40 = 37.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) ended the week almost where it started. In between the bookends, the market gyrated wildly … Read more
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is putting the Google Trends indicator to the test. The price of Bitcoin is surging at the same time this key indicator of sentiment is also surging (on a relative basis). Per the Google Trends hypothesis I have demonstrated over time, this surge in excitement is signaling an imminent reversal in the parabolic … Read more
The Price Action A little over a month ago I made the case for a sustained bottom in Bitcoin (BTC/USD) based on the price action combined with Google Trends. I stated the following hypothesis: “a spike in search interest confirms a strong change in price behavior.” The on-going uptrend since that point proves out the hypothesis in … Read more
(Updated on January 3, 2023 in “How Home Builder Stocks Trade In A Seasonal Pattern“) The Spring selling season is a critical period for the housing market and usually delivers peak activity for the year. This seasonal pattern forms a notable pivot for the stocks of home builders. These stocks typically rally on the wings … Read more
I have finally jumped into the crypto-era. Bitcoin broke out into the first “convincing” and buyable technical pattern I have seen since the bubble burst over a year ago. Breakout Anyone who follows cryptocurrencies knows by now that Bitcoin (BTC/USD) broke out last week. The move was a powerful one that launched the cryptocurrency out … Read more
AT40 = 85.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (20th overbought day)AT200 = 47.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (4-month high which reverses the October, 2018 breakdown)VIX = 13.5Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The waiting game continues within a bullish cloak. An extended overbought rally … Read more
Introduction The percentage of stocks trading above important moving averages provides good information on the breadth of the stock market. I use the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) because the historical data are readily available for analysis. I call this indicator “AT40” as a shorthand for “above the 40DMA” … Read more