ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: How many times and how many ways does the Fed need to communicate its seriousness about normalizing monetary policy and fighting inflation? Apparently, the answer for Fed-speak is many times and a LOT of ways. Fed Governor Lael Brainard delivered one way with a speech on Tuesday titled “Variation in the Inflation … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary An aggressively hawkish Federal Reserve has changed the game for the housing market. After falling behind the curve and failing to start the rate hike cycle last year, America’s central bank is now desperately scrambling to catch up without causing a recession. The housing market is ground zero for the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Last week delivered a series of confirmed breakouts that served to uphold bullish belief in the stock market. Even as the overall rally looks to continue, the market’s most troubled corners showed weakness at the end of the week. These holdouts failed to break through important resistance levels. Some of these growth … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market finished the week with confirmations of the bullish signals that were hard to believe. Accordingly, the follow-through buying served to uphold bullish belief despite the negative headwinds that scream with bearish overtones. Looking back, the current V-move upward looks swift. However, letting bullishness ride through this swing has taken … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: I did not back my way into an explanation for Wednesday’s post-Fed rally in the stock market, and I will not do so to explain the rest of the market’s impressively relentless comeback. In fact, the rally makes little sense given the prevailing narrative of fears over higher rates – not to … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: I will not attempt to back my way into an explanation for today’s impressive rally in the stock market. Maybe the surge is another classic bear market relief rally. Maybe the relief fuel symbolizes a market finally ready to leave a bottom behind. Time will tell. What IS clear is that the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created massive human misery and a historic press of global economic sanctions. With war comes scarcity and the allocation of resources to destroying the resources of others. Financial markets are scrambling to adjust to the new global wartime economy. These charts are just a snapshot of some … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market held up surprisingly well last week given the intensifying Russian assault on Ukraine and the accelerating economic sanctions pressing upon Russia. Yet, similar to my concerns for the suffering Ukrainian people, I have increasing doubts that this market “stasis” can last much longer. Specifically, the downtrending 20-day moving averages … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Trading with on-going headline risk is difficult for bulls and bears. I find it useful to pick a narrative, pick an anchor, and stay as disciplined as possible. My foundation remains with the principles of trading contrary to extremes. Last week, the market tested the extremes of oversold trading conditions and survived … Read more
Stock Market Commentary I earlier wrote about a promising divergence between anxiety and breadth in the stock market. However, I cannot help rubbernecking the market’s crashes and accidents. They tell dramatic stories about the folly in price action that can come with easy monetary policy and free money. The market goes through cycles of excitement … Read more