ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary The housing market’s comfortable calm continued into September even as the stock prices of home builders raced downward. A general sell-off in the stock market ensnared housing-related stocks. Yet, the housing data reported in September showed little change from the prior month. While home builder stocks ignore the calm in … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The strong start to September which characterized the persistent complacency in the stock market soon gave way to the kind of selling that characterizes one of the most dangerous months of the year. September came to a bearish end with a 4.8% loss on the month for the S&P 500. The index … Read more
Two weeks ago, I expressed caution over Spotify Technology (SPOT) in the wake of sellers fading an extremely bullish upgrade from an analyst at KeyBanc. That upgrade to overweight from sector weight included a $340 price target. The contrary and surprising trading action right after the analyst call was telling. A week after KeyBanc, an … Read more
The seasonal trade in home builders continues to unfold more like a typical year. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) peaked in May on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY). Since that peak, ITB is down 12.2% while the S&P 500 is UP 3.9%. This gap is so wide that … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week opened with a gap down amid hand-wringing about the potential for contagion from debt problems in China’s property market. However, the week ended like nothing happened. The major indices even managed marginal gains after the dust settled. As is so often the case, the Federal Reserve, under the comforting words … Read more
After two bullish engulfing patterns, Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) finally carved out a more lasting, even if sloppy, bottom. A business update at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia Conference provided the catalyst. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi delivered good news across several operational metrics. He also reported that UBER may get to profitability in the current quarter. After … Read more
Stock Market Commentary In my previous post I looked ahead to the Fed meeting on Wednesday as a main wildcard facing down the stock market’s most predictable trading pattern. Instead, heavy headlines about a looming financial crisis in China ground the gears of the stock market. Sprinkle in some obligatory fear about the dire warnings … Read more
Apple Dividing Rally from Churn The latest cycle of the Apple Trading Model (ATM) happened between a legal setback for Apple and a product launch event. The week began somewhat hopeful with a small gain. Sellers ended the prospects for the Apple trade by fading the product announcement with a 1.0% loss and a close … Read more
One of the great features of options trading is the protection it offers against large absolute losses from surprise gaps in price from the underlying stock. That protection came in handy when casino and hotel company Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) gapped down following news of a fresh regulatory crackdown in Macau, China. WYNN gapped down … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The weight of deteriorating market breadth was undermining the stock market even as on-going rotations kept the indices floating higher. Last week, the tone made one of those periodic, yet still small, shifts. When news broke that Epic Games won a key provision of its lawsuit against Apple and its Apple Store, … Read more