ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
After the stock market finally tumbled from overbought conditions, I concluded that “…hope remains for bullish wishes, but all the warning signs are tilting comfort levels to the bears.” Bears are now making themselves feel right at home. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 lost 1.6% on higher than average volume, creating the kind of strong … Read more
After 46 days, the stock market finally dropped out of overbought conditions. On Friday, T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), plunged below the 70% overbought threshold all the way to 62.5%. The stock market had a historic run. These past 46 trading days created the sixth longest overbought … Read more
Another week, another extension of a historic overbought period in the S&P 500. Based on the closing performance of the stock market’s major indices, you probably would not guess that one of the stock market’s largest companies (Cisco) lost 16% on the day. If there was a day for the market to have an excuse … Read more
The shorts in Cisco (CSCO) had it right after all…even if they were a bit early. Short interest in CSCO surged in late August close to 52-week highs. When I noticed this in mid-September, I made a somewhat complicated case for using this as a contrarian signal to go long the stock. CSCO trickled upward … Read more
I was about a month premature and about 19% in missed gains when I flagged the potential start of a parabolic move in silver. Or perhaps my definition of a parabolic move should have been more expansive. Either way, silver’s behavior over the past four trading days definitely has taken on the tipsy look of … Read more
Ahead of last week’s big events, I suggested that the market was setting up for a surprise reaction. So far, the biggest surprise has been the timing of the market’s big rally reaction after the election and the Federal Reserve’s announcement of quantitative easing and before the unemployment report. But that is not the surprise … Read more
Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT) have been tech laggards for some time now. However, over the past week, both stocks finally breached the all-important 200-day moving average (DMA) line of resistance (charts at the end of this piece). While MSFT is struggling to add to its small post-earnings gains, INTC has completely reversed the post-earnings … Read more
Like my friend TraderMike, I am extremely surprised at the timing of the market’s latest breakout. I too would have thought a breakout would come immediately after one of our three main news items of the week, not in between! I agree with TraderMike that the nature of this breakout leaves open the real possibility … Read more
The Federal Reserve announced its plans to drive quantitative easing (QE) part 2 by maintaining the reinvestment of “…principal payments from its securities holdings purchasing…[and purchasing] a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month.” The New York Fed … Read more
While many gear up for the elections and the Federal Reserve, I am bracing myself for a barrage of earnings from solar companies. Thursday night, First Solar (FSLR) kicked off the earnings parade in disappointing fashion as the market reacted by taking the stock down 9%. It seems that the market agonized over two main … Read more