ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Redfin (RDFN) may have provided one of the first validations of the (presumed) investor fears that have weighed down the stocks of home builders since the February sell-off. In its last earnings report on August 9, 2018, RDFN provided this brief, yet significant, warning: “We expect U.S. home sales growth to slow and even perhaps … Read more
AT40 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The indicators barely changed from the last Above the 40 post, but the technical winds are likely changing yet again. A little … Read more
AT40 = 52.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The technical winds may be on the upswing. Last weekend, I pointed out how bearish divergence preceded and warned of the sell-off … Read more
The price of cocoa has been in near freefall again. The picture-perfect bounce for iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) from its support at 200-day moving average (DMA) reversed into a recent 200DMA breakdown and a convincing breakdown below the June low. Source: FreeStockCharts.com As usual, a flurry of news exists that helps explain at … Read more
I am riding the long U.S. dollar index (DXY) trade based on two simple drivers: 1) a U.S. Federal Reserve pacing for four rate hikes in 2018, and 2) an expanding trade war, especially against China, which on balance will create more demand for U.S. dollars especially relative to those currencies who stand to lose … Read more