T2108 Update (September 9, 2016) – FedSpeak Crashes the Stock Market’s Complacency Party – For Now

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (March 4, 2016) – The Underlying Bullishness of the S&P 500’s Melt Up to 1999.99

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (January 5, 2015) – The Santa Claus Rally Gives Way to New Year Angst

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

A Bearish Drop In Steel Stocks

It was September 17, 2014. Not even a month ago. U.S. Steel (X) enjoyed another gap up just 6 weeks since it printed a 19.4% post-earnings gain. The headline drivers for the latest pop were: 1) a price target boost from Goldman Sachs (GS) from $47 to $58, 2) X’s announcement of strategic business actions, … Read more

T2108 Update (December 9, 2013) – Upside Resolution

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The QE2 Reference Price Identifies the Strongest Iron Ore and Metallurgical Coal Plays

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, I demonstrated how the timing of QE2 provided a useful reference point for buying Freeport-McMoran (FCX) as part of a coming revision of the commodity crash playbook. In this … Read more

T2108 Update (September 6, 2012) – Bearish Undertones Brushed Away In A Single Swipe

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

Chart Review: A Cautious Eye on Cyclicals – Materials and Industrials

Cyclical stocks continue to worry me even as the S&P 500 treads water. Charts across a wide swath of related stocks show inabilities to break critical resistance and in some cases, are outright breaking down. Here are several representative charts along with brief commentary. The Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) and the Industrial Select Sector … Read more

Earnings Warning By GrafTech International Highlights Weak Solar And Weakening Europe

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 27, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) GrafTech International Ltd (GTI) is a small company with a $1.86B market cap whose fourth quarter and full year 2011 earnings report shed additional light on the weak solar sector and … Read more

2012 Will Begin with Several Candidate Trades for the Commodity Crash Playbook

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 28, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Federal Reserve’s second phase of quantitative easing (QE2) is slowly becoming a distant memory…{snip} The stark contrast between winning and losing stocks (S&P 500 index versus many commodity stocks) leaves … Read more