ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market has swung so much between hope and despair that it looks like a dog chasing its tail down a hill. Accordingly, “The Market Breadth” has careened from soaring headlines to danger signs. A steep downtrend has remained in place since the last peak in August. Since that time 200-day … Read more
Over a month ago, I uncovered a sunny thesis about a bottom for the ARK funds. The timing of that post happened to be the exact top of the cycle for the ARK funds. Moreover, the S&P 500 (SPY) was trading just under its 200-day moving average (DMA) (the blue in the chart below). Once … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The recession that Wall Street wants remains elusive according to the August jobs report. The data show the labor participation rate increased with job growth and a minimal increase in the unemployment rate: a recipe for the (mythical?) economic soft landing. The reaction in the stock market reflected the duality in interpreting … Read more
The conditions for bottoming in the ARK funds started to diverge a bit in late June. While the bottoming patterns differed, the ARK bottom synchronized with the general market’s bottom. Those conditions were born from the deeply oversold conditions that arrived in June. At that time, I interpreted the turmoil as the early days of … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Market breadth was last this high 17 months ago. At that time, my favorite technical indicator was on its way down as a part of another buy-the-dip moment for the pandemic-inspired rally in the stock market. This time, market breadth is sitting right on top of the threshold of overbought conditions. The … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Once again, Apple Inc (AAPL) became a poster child of market sentiment. When AAPL pulled away from resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below), the move looked like a tease with bear market conditions still in force. Two weeks later, AAPL emerged vindicated as a 3.3% post-earnings gain … Read more
A month ago I laid out the case and conditions for bottoming across the collection of ARK funds. The key pivot rested with the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It still is the first and only of the pre-pandemic ARK funds to break its pandemic era closing low. Over the past month, ARKF struggled mightily … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: “The U.S. economy remains fundamentally strong, despite recent mixed data. Recent developments have increased the risk of a future adverse outcome. Our fortress principles are designed to withstandany operating environment.” JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM), Investor Day 2022, Firm Overview, page 12 Starting from oversold conditions, the market was looking for … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: After much resistance to Fed hawkishness, the U.S. stock market gave way to fresh bearishness. The major indices dropped into new depths of the bear den. The stocks below are snapshots of the latest deterioration in the price action and decline in the technical health underlying the stock market. The ARK funds … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: As expected, the S&P 500 took the spotlight in the latest week of trading. Earlier I noted that the index was a breakdown away from bearish trading conditions. The S&P 500 obliged and dropped under its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below). However, the bearish call is challenging because sellers … Read more