ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in March, 2017 for February, 2017. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was at the bottom of what turned out to be a very shallow pullback from a near 10-year high. The subsequent recovery has been grinding and slow, but ITB now trades above … Read more
Sellers once again lost their advantage as the S&P 500 (SPY) came roaring right back from its ugliest close since the U.S. Presidential election. The bullishness on the day was on full display with the number of new all-time highs well out-pacing new all-time lows by 181 to 79. While the S&P 500 (SPY) still … Read more
With the technicals on the stock market weakening ever so subtly, I concluded that now might be a good time to lock in the rest of my profits on the seasonal trade on home builders. However, an upgrade from RBC on Toll Brothers (TOL) breathed new life into the home builder rally. TOL benefited mightily … Read more
Australia just celebrated setting a (modern era) world record for the longest string of quarters without a recession. Yet Australia’s economic backdrop appears to be wavering. This week’s labor force survey could provide a critical point of relief or pile on yet more concern. Iron Ore’s Latest Plunge I begin with iron ore – Australia’s … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in February, 2017 for January, 2017. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was pressing against a near 10-year high. Uptrends in the 20, 50, and 200-day moving average suggested that “the coiled spring” was uncurling up and to the right. In March, ITB launched … Read more
The core of the seasonal trade on home builders is closing out with a likely rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, March 15th the market expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike its interest rate by a quarter of a basis point (.25%). Up until now, the rate sensitive housing sector has … Read more
AT40 = 42.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 59.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.7 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The February U.S. jobs report catalyzed the next swing in the stock market’s bear-bull knife fight. I noted in my … Read more
Century Communities (CCS) just made a new all-time high and yet it is STILL a cheap stock. CCS sits at a 0.5 price/sales ratio, 1.1 price/book ratio, 10.7 trailing P/E, and 7.6 forward P/E. Home builders typically hit 1.0 price/book ratios at the BOTTOM of a recessionary cycle. The response to CCS’s latest earnings report … Read more
AT40 = 43.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 60.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Times like these really put AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), to … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in January, 2017 for December, 2016. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was rebounding strongly from a brief pullback from an earnings-driven 6-month high. I described the setup as a coiled spring. The coiled spring did not release to great effect, but earnings from … Read more