T2108 Update (December 15, 2015) – Oversold Period Ends With Stocks Left Behind

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Market Jitters Evident in the Reaction to Australian Jobs Data

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 10, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On December 10th, the Australin Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported Australia’s jobs data for November, 2015. The results were in-line with existing trends: {snip} Adjusted for seasonality, the unemployment rate decreased … Read more

How to Trade the Euro After the “Draghi Drubbing”

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 7, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), apparently decided not to follow the now well-established playbook for steering markets nearly perfected by the Federal Reserve: Guide the market to … Read more

The Bank of Canada Looks Forward to Policy Divergence

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 3, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Lost in the flurry of economic and monetary news of the week was the Bank of Canada’s December decision on interest rates. The Bank kept its target rate at 0.5%, and … Read more

T2108 Update (December 9, 2015) – A Stock Market Hurtling Toward Oversold Trading Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

OPEC Slams the Oil Patch – A Quick Look At the Reverberations

On Friday, December 4, 2015, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) slammed the oil patch by adjourning without an agreement to put a cap on production. This quote from a Bloomberg article probably sums up the implications best: “‘It means more OPEC oil next year,’ Jamie Webster, a Washington-based oil analyst for IHS … Read more

T2108 Update (December 3, 2015) – The Draghi Drubbing Drives Follow-Through Selling

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Getting Ready to Tip-Toe Around the Euro

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The European Central Bank (ECB) next makes a statement on monetary policy on December 3, 2015. The market is apparently eagerly anticipating an announcement from ECB President Mario Draghi that delivers … Read more

No Bottom Yet for Gold But Its Current Decline Should Soon Slow

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 29, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to hike interest rates in December. The Fed and economic data have finally convinced the market of an imminent rate hike, and the high odds … Read more

Small Statement Changes Bolster Dovish Policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rolled out the copy and paste machine for its December statement on monetary policy. I found just two snippets of differences from the November statement that are worth noting: This time around, the RBA fingered weaker demand as a driver of lower commodity prices. In the last statement, supply, … Read more