ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The following chart reminds me that except for one post-Brexit emergency rate cut and its rapid reversal once the cut turned out to be unnecessary, the Bank of England (BoE) has done nothing with interest rates in the 9 years since the financial crisis. Source: Bank of England During an interview with the BBC on … Read more
AT40 = 54.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 15.4 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Commentary Source: My Daughter A week ago, I finally changed my short-term trading call: I went from neutral to cautiously bearish. When … Read more
AT40 = 55.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 16.9 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Commentary The stock market faded from bullish undertones and back into the resting position. Now we can just look back at what … Read more
Last June, 2017, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada (BoC) Carolyn A. Wilkins stepped onto the stage with a surprisingly bullish message about the Canadian economy. This speech set the stage for the BoC’s rollback of “emergency measure” rate cuts that responded to the past collapse in oil prices. At the time, the … Read more
It seems the U.S. dollar index (USD) has stopped going down. Since careening to its lows in January, the U.S. dollar has bounced up and down through a well-defined range. Source: Stockcharts.com The U.S. dollar gained each of the last 4 trading days as part of its latest run-up toward the top its trading range. … Read more
“…I decided to fade [USD/TRY] in anticipation of the next pullback. I also hope to collect a decent amount of carry as financial markets settle down a bit with earnings in the U.S. Still, until the CBRT takes definitive action, it makes sense to short the lira in the middle of what looks like an … Read more
It was utter chaos in January, 2015: the Swiss National Bank (SNB) capitulated on its self-made 1.20 floor against the euro on EUR/CHF. The bottom completely fell out the currency pair and caused ripple effects around the world of forex. I barely traded the Swiss franc since then specifically because of what I perceived as … Read more
AT40 = 45.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) gained 2.0% for the week. Yet the week felt like a loser given the way it ended. The … Read more
Source: CNBC Ever since LongFin Corp. (LFIN) soared astronomically four days into its stint as a publicly traded company, I have been fascinated by the story. At the time I covered the story, I wrote: “The trading in recent IPO LongFin Corp. (LFIN) may go down as iconic in this era of frenetic trading in … Read more
The Turkish lira is in trouble again. Last week, USD/TRY hit an all-time high amid more dire headlines for the Turkish economy and the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). On April 3rd, Bloomberg reported the following issues: 7.4% GDP growth in 2017 is overheating the economy. Turkish companies … Read more