ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
A year ago, the Bank of Canada (BOC) delivered the first of two rate cut surprises for the year. So with oil still cratering ever lower, I can understand why the market seemed braced for yet another rate cut last week. Instead, the BOC not only stood still on rates, but also it expressed an … Read more
The U.S. dollar index ended 2015 on a strong note, but it has yet to develop any post-Fed momentum. Of the ten trading days following the rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the index has closed below that day’s intraday high five days. Notably, the intraday LOW of that day is still holding strong … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 10, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On December 10th, the Australin Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported Australia’s jobs data for November, 2015. The results were in-line with existing trends: {snip} Adjusted for seasonality, the unemployment rate decreased … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 29, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The iShares Transportation Average (IYT) began to diverge notably from the S&P 500 (SPY) in March of this year. It took another five months for this divergence to resolve into a … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 11, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Statistics Australia reported a large jump in jobs for the month of October, 2015. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped from 6.2% to 5.9%. This is the lowest unemployment rate … Read more
This past week was an important one for monetary policy. The Bank of England (BoE) made clear it is willing to put off rate hikes as long as necessary. Despite its words that suggest otherwise, the Bank is NOT biased for action. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made it clear that, all else being … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 1, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) For the third straight month, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction in Canada expanded. According to Statistics Canada, this commodity and energy based category of economic output has now grown … Read more
On October 28, 2015 (Australian time), the Australian dollar (FXA) was slammed by Australia’s September, 2015 inflation data. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a 1.5% year-over-year increase in its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. While inflation is still hovering above the lows for the post-crisis period, this is the longest stretch … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 25, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On October 21st, the Bank of Canada issued its latest statement on monetary policy. While the Bank of Canada (BoC) left interest rates unchanged, it slightly lowered its growth forecast over … Read more
“…I expect that inflation will return to 2 percent over the next few years as the temporary factors that are currently weighing on inflation wane, provided that economic growth continues to be strong enough to complete the return to maximum employment and long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored. Most FOMC participants, including myself, currently anticipate … Read more