ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Overall Assessment I am bullish on Meritage Homes (MTH). Both the fundamentals and the technicals on the company and stock look good even following the strong performance this year and following the last earnings report. I am very late on digging into Meritage’s latest story despite pointing out the stock’s strength several times over the … Read more
Overall Assessment I am cautiously bullish on M/I Homes (MHO) which means I want to buy the stock on dips. The company’s Q2 2019 earnings report demonstrated strong growth amid record financial performance. The homebuilder is benefiting from the increasing popularity of lower-priced homes as first-time home buyers look for affordable housing amid a scramble … Read more
Overall Assessment I am neutral on KB Home (KBH). The company’s Q2 2019 earnings report offered just enough to erase the negativity going into earnings but offered nothing to ignite renewed upward momentum. The company talked a great game with a lot of bullish commentary but the actual numbers and metrics belie the headlines. KB … Read more
The bullish post-earnings scenario I painted for Apple (AAPL) worked out relatively well in the first day of trading. After AAPL quickly topped out, my proposed strategy for a calendar call spread rapidly transformed from under-performing the benchmark weekly $210 call strategy to outperforming. In the immediate wake of earnings, AAPL gapped over expected $215 … Read more
Last week, I made a bullish case for trading ahead of earnings for Apple (AAPL). My calendar call spread hit its initial profit target and left behind the put spread and a search for a new strategy. Last Friday, CNBC Options Action presented its own bullish case for Apple’s earnings, but I did not like … Read more
It was just this past weekend when I laid out my latest strategy trading Apple (AAPL) pre-earnings including updated historical data. Much to my surprise, my calendar call spread closed out at its pre-earnings profit target as AAPL followed through on Tuesday from Monday’s big 2.3% rebound. (As a reminder, my ideal scenario featured the … Read more
AT40 = 58.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = ~52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.5Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A week ago, the S&P 500 (SPY) made a new all-time, and I was expecting a trip into overbought conditions. AT40 … Read more
Historic Bearishness In Apple Bloomberg published an article on July 8th titled “Wall Street Hasn’t Been This Pessimistic on Apple in Decades.” Out of 57 analyst ratings, 5 were outright sells on AAPL. Amazingly, AAPL has not attracted this many bears since at least 1997. Of course, 10% of analysts is a small fraction and … Read more
I have written plenty this year about the seasonal top in home builders. I even drew up a game plan to trade this pattern in a way to pay for the bullish trade that opens up during the period of seasonal strength. That seasonal top took its first good hit with a positive pre-earnings announcement … Read more
The Good When Lennar (LEN) reported earnings on June 25th, the stock market responded with the kind of hesitation and whiplash symbolic of the seasonal topping pattern in place for home builders. The first reaction was celebratory as LEN gapped upward and rallied as high 3.6%. The initial reporting on LEN earnings focused on all … Read more