ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
“…certainly with valuations where they are, I’m sure we’re going to go through a doozy of a correction this year. At some point. I don’t know when. And I don’t know why. But I do know, it never hurts to take profits and to keep some powder dry so that you have the psychological wherewithal … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 8, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Friday’s U.S. employment report delivered strong results yet again. It helped increase expectations of a Fed rate hike by June as iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) and SPDR Gold Shares … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 5, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Suddenly, the Swiss franc (FXF) is nearing the 1.20 floor against the euro again. Almost three months ago, I thought the Swiss franc was hurtling toward a retest of the longstanding … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 25, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Swiss franc (FXF) has started another weakening phase, putting an exclamation point on the currency market’s refusal to go along with the shrill, recent headlines claiming another deflation cycle has … Read more
Oh to have the resources of China. The Financial Times reports in “China sits on up to $1.5bn in copper profits” that China has cleaned up in betting against the deflationary fears that gripped much of the planet in 2008-2009: “Beijing’s bet that a ‘super-cycle’ in metals markets would keep copper prices high, despite the … Read more
Last week, the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (TIP) surged to a fresh 2-year closing high on the same day the Federal Reserve issued its latest monetary policy statement. (TIPS = Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities – I will refer to “TIPS” when discussing the actual bonds and use “TIP” to refer to the ETF that uses … Read more
Mohamed El-Erian recently quantified the odds of deflation at 1 in 4, or 25%. His analogy to describe the dangers ahead seemed to be a recipe for inaction (and fear): “…ask yourself the following question: would you accept a lift from a person who has a one-in-four chance of getting into a really bad car … Read more
For many commodity-related stocks the bounce from the March, 2009 lows to the first peak in June encompasses the bulk of their respective gains in the past 15 months. The current, on-going correction has delivered such heavy losses to some of these stocks that they are now trading at those June, 2009 prices. About 1/3 … Read more