T2108 Update (January 19, 2016) – And Now the Waiting As the VIX Coils Its Springs

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (January 6, 2016) – The S&P 500 Hits 3-Month Low But Still Not Oversold

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

(Vainly) In Search of the Correlation Between Oil and the S&P 500

We hear the relationship claimed so casually and so frequently, we probably no longer give it a second thought. For example, on December 30th, the S&P 500 (SPY) lost 0.7%. Searching for an explanation, CNBC ran the all-too familiar headline “Dow closes down triple digits as oil slide weighs.” Oil lost 3.3% on the day … Read more

“A Considerable Risk” for the Australian Dollar

Australia’s Department of Industry, Innovation and Science recently released its latest Resources and Energy Quarterly. As usual, I was most interested in the projections for iron ore and the Australian dollar. The Department has been over-optimistic in the past about iron ore. This time around, the Department slashed forecasts in what sounds like another disappointing … Read more

Alternatives to Fortescue Metal’s Nationalistic Fervor Over Iron Ore

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 14, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Now that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has cleared Andrew Forrest of violating laws against anti-competitive business practices, the CEO of Fortescue Metals Group (FSUGY) (FSUMY) wasted no time … Read more