ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The Washington Post issued an alarming article today titled “Housing Agency’s Cash Reserves Will Drop Below Requirement.” In what seems like yet another case of “here we go again,” Federal Housing Authority (FHA) Commissioner David H. Stevens tells us not to worry about his agency’s dwindling reserves even as mortgage delinquencies rise. The Post explains … Read more
Last week I decided to short the pound vs the U.S. dollar despite the fact that the relief rally I expect in the dollar had not yet begun. One week later, there remains no relief in sight for the dollar, but the pound has fared even worse. I am of course grateful that I chose … Read more
I know it seems strange that on another day when it seems like stocks are destined for infinite glory that I am adding to my existing holdings in TIP, the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fond (TIPS = Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). I also remain overall bearish so a steep correction in the stock market will probably … Read more
My brother and I go back and forth in our discussions about the dynamics of the housing industry. He is good on the fundamentals, and I substitute my weakness on the fundamentals with technical analysis, sentiment analysis, and the information I can glean from earnings calls. Today, he wrote out his latest case for the … Read more
Last week, I noted heavy call activity in MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) that was notable enough to lure me into buying. Today, WFR continued its impressive recovery from an earnings warning with an 8% one-day pop giving it a 17% run since the close following warning. Briefing.com attributed today’s trading to takeover speculation. Whatever the … Read more
Every now and then, high options volume does precede unique stock activity (my own analysis concluded that high options volume is at best a signal to trade with the prevailing trend). Yesterday, Coventry Health (CVH) (a managed healthcare company) succumbed to heavy selling pressure and dropped 7% one day after briefing.com reported unusual options activity … Read more
Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) closed out Tuesday’s trading with an impressive 6% gain on volume 58% higher than average. *Chart created using TeleChart: For six weeks, CAT bounced inside a small trading channel as it consolidated impressive gains from the July lows and July’s earnings report. CAT is plowing ahead despite lingering and extremely high skeptical … Read more
Last week, there was talk that the Bank of England would implement negative interest rates. I was all set to begin shorting the Pound (mainly versus the U.S. dollar), but the BoE simply maintained interest rates, made no changes to its quantitative easing program, and had nothing new to say. The Pound lifted in “relief”, … Read more
This past earnings season for solar companies was a general disappointment if measured by stock performance after the earnings releases although the season started with a bang when Sunpower (SPWRA) issued surprise guidance and generated a one-day, 29% pop in price. I wanted to review the conference calls of all the major, publicly traded solar … Read more
Steel Dynamics (STLD) has steadily rolled out increased guidance over the past few quarters. Last night, STLD increased July’s earnings guidance from $0.10 to $0.20 per diluted share to $0.20 to $0.25. This strength has come from orders and volumes in flat-rolled steel and metal recycling. Because STLD has yet to see any impact from … Read more