T2108 Update (July 3, 2012) – Overbought and breaking out

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 81.2% (3rd overbought day) … Read more

A Better Way to Manage Overhead Bin Space On Airlines

(Adapted from the original post at The Thought Blog at Ahan Analytics, LLC) The stock for U.S. Airways (LCC) is flying high, currently trading at four and half year highs. This performance is much better than the Amex airline index (XAL) which remains over 20% below highs set in 2010. Source for charts: FreeStockCharts.com Clearly, … Read more

The Positive Trade When Incumbent Presidents Run For Re-Election

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 2, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) S&P Capital IQ’s Sam Stovall appeared on Nightly Business Report on Friday, June 29, 2012 to provide some statistics on how the stock market tends to perform in the second half … Read more

Swiss Franc Refuses To Confirm Fresh Euro-Optimism

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Thursday, June 28th, Swiss National Bank (SNB) vice chairman Jean-Pierre Danthine repeated a claim made consistently by the SNB: at 1.20 the Swiss franc is overvalued relative to the euro. … Read more

The Dollar’s Tumble Accompanies A Host of Critical Currency and Commodity Trades

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Thanks largely to the surging euro, the U.S. dollar index (UUP) took one of its nastiest one-day tumbles since last October, falling 1.3%. I believe this drop all but confirms staunch … Read more

T2108 Update (June 29, 2012) – Finally overbought again and the low for the summer may be behind us

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 71.2% (First overbought day) … Read more

T2108 Update (June 25, 2012) – Follow-Through Selling

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 33.4% VIX Status: 20.4 … Read more

Japanese Yen Confirms Returning Risk Aversion

I earlier argued that the Japanese yen held a critical piece of the puzzle to determining what’s next for risk attitudes (see “The Japanese Yen And Volatility Sit At The Cusp Of Renewed Risk Aversion”). On Monday, the yen seemed to confirm that risk aversion is indeed returning and likely to stay with us for … Read more

Chart Review: A Cautious Eye on Cyclicals – Materials and Industrials

Cyclical stocks continue to worry me even as the S&P 500 treads water. Charts across a wide swath of related stocks show inabilities to break critical resistance and in some cases, are outright breaking down. Here are several representative charts along with brief commentary. The Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) and the Industrial Select Sector … Read more

Japanese Yen and Volatility Sit At the Cusp Of Renewed Risk Aversion

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 22, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Thursday was a good day for the dollar index (UUP) as it experienced one of its strongest one-day rallies of the year. {snip} While the dollar’s rally was indeed impressive, I … Read more