Lost in the Market Angst: A Dramatic Improvement in Canadian Employment

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 12, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Suddenly, I am feeling a lot less bearish about the Canadian dollar (FXC). {snip} This means that half the job creation over the past year happened all in one month. What … Read more

Jobs Numbers Underline Echo Dovish Canadian Monetary Policy, Halting Rally in Canadian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 12, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Ever since the Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy on March 19th, the Canadian dollar (FXC) has staged a strong recovery, increasing about 3.4% over that time. Canada’s weak employment report … Read more

Unemployment and Commodity Prices Working Against the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 7, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) It is probably only a matter of time before the next deep swoon in the Australian dollar (FXA). On August 7th…the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a spike higher in … Read more

What I Learned Shorting the Euro

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The euro (FXE) has been one stubborn currency. The short euro trade taught me and reminded me to be patient, to stay focused on the underlying thesis until it is proven … Read more

Increasing Unemployment, Decreasing Commodity Prices Portend Jawboning By the Reserve Bank of Australia

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 13, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) So much for a trough in unemployment in Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) produced another poor employment report. In January, Australia lost another 3,700 jobs, and the number of … Read more

U.S. Jobs Report Pushes Australian Dollar Into Target, Australian Jobs Up Next

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 13, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) I started this year with a bullish bias on the Australian dollar (FXA) with a short-term target set at the 50-day moving average (DMA) (see Australian Dollar Starts The Year With … Read more

Canada’s Poor Year of Employment Should Pressure Bank of Canada and Canadian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 12, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) It looks like the Bank of Canada was indeed setting the groundwork for easing monetary policy when it sounded fresh alarms about the Canadian economy last year. The extremely weak employment … Read more

The British Pound And Euro Surge Despite Higher U.S. Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 30, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Friday, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield hit 3.0%, matching a high for the year. Rate are rising again across the yield curve. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve This steady … Read more

Demographics and Labor Flows Drive the Implications of the Labor Participation Rate

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 22, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In his opening statement for his press conference following the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve, Chairman Ben Bernanke once again called out the influence of lower participation rates on unemployment… … Read more

The Dollar’s Underwhelming Week Was Consistent With On-Going Trading Range

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 9, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week was supposed to be a dramatic week with a whole host of pronouncements from the world’s major central banks, the aftermath of the Jackson Hole confab, and major economic … Read more