ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The disappointing inflation numbers for Australia did not just take down the Australian dollar (FXA). Financial markets also rushed to ramp up the odds of a rate cut in the next policy meeting for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Source: ASX RBA Rate Indicator Even if the RBA takes a pass on a rate … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
The following data cover the latest from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders as reported by Oanda from the week of Monday, March 21, 2016. From Oanada: “The Commitments of Traders (COT) is a report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It aggregates the holdings of participants in the U.S. futures markets (primarily based … Read more
A bottom for the British pound just got more likely. The latest data from the CFTC shows that net speculators beat a major retreat from net short positions against the British pound: Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders The chart shows that speculators have not held such small net short positions since the surge began … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
What a difference a month makes. On February 19, the S&P 500 (SPY) was taking a brief rest from a sprint off oversold conditions. The market for Fed Fund Futures had priced away any rate hikes for all of 2016. Ever since then, expectations have risen ever higher. NOW, the market expects the next rate … Read more
Mario Draghi ALMOST got the language of infinite liquidity right this time around… The euro (FXE) approached the European Central Bank’s (ECB) March 10th press conference on monetary policy with high expectations. Even after getting burned in December’s Draghi Drubbing, the currency market “felt” prepared to accept that ECB President Draghi had learned the lessons … Read more
I have become accustomed to a relatively predictable reaction to moves in the market’s expectations for rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Last week began in the wake of the market finally bringing its expectations for the next rate hike back into 2016. The cascade of impacts from there were predictable: a stronger U.S. … Read more
On Friday, February 26th, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reported revised GDP results for Q4 2015. The number went from a first estimate of 0.7% to 1.0% annualized. The Bureau of Economic Analysis declared “with this second estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; … Read more