Above the 40 (March 8, 2017) – A Quiet Pre-Fed Breakdown for the Stock Market

AT40 = 43.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 60.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Times like these really put AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), to … Read more

Above the 40 (March 3, 2017) – The S&P 500 Marches Confidently Toward the Next Rate Hike

AT40 = 57.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 67.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.0 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary So March it is then! In reaction to U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at The Executives’ Club of … Read more

Above the 40 (March 2, 2017) – An S&P 500 Attitude Adjustment and A SNAP Judgement

AT40 = 58.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 68.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.8 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary And this is why I appreciate hedging…and using Caterpillar (CAT) as my most common hedge was particularly fortuitous today. On … Read more

Above the 40 (March 1, 2017) – The S&P 500 Coil Springs Into March Rate Hike Expectations

AT40 Status: 64.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 Status: 70.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX Status: 12.5 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Two days ago, I titled my Above the 40 update “The S&P 500 Coiled In Anticipation.” I described the building … Read more

A Fresh Gold Versus Bonds Pairs Trade With the Dollar Playing Wildcard

It is hard to believe that just six weeks ago I proposed a pairs trade of gold versus bonds with the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) toying with resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) doing the same. Now, GLD has already hit the next line of resistance … Read more

The U.S. Dollar Fails To Benefit From Expectations for An Earlier Fed Rate Hike

Perhaps the shift was not large enough. Perhaps it was the magnetism of the 50-day moving average (DMA). After the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its last meeting on monetary policy, the U.S. dollar index (DXY0) promptly weakened. The dollar closed the day marginally lower after trading for a small gain in the morning. … Read more

Above the 40 (February 1, 2017) – A Deepening Bearish Divergence for the S&P 500 Tarnishes Apple’s Moment

(“Above the 40” uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs] to assess the technical health of the stock market and to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Abbreviated as AT40, Above the 40 is an alternative label for “T2108” which was created by Worden. Learn … Read more

U.S. Dollar Weakness Dominating the Canadian Dollar Trade

The U.S. dollar index (DXY0) has started 2017 on a notable losing streak. The index’s clean close today below 100 is the latest confirmation of that weakness. The U.S. dollar index continued its dribbling down the lower part of Bollinger Bands (BBs) that define the current downtrend. Source: StockCharts.com This extension of weakness has complicated … Read more

T2108 Update (January 24, 2017) – Bullish Writing On the Walls…With Footnotes

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (January 19, 2017) – Inauguration Eve Draws More Bearish Divergence

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more