ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
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By a slim margin, the Turkish people voted to change the country’s government from a Parliamentary system to a Presidential one. The change will reportedly cement the power of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and allow him to stay in power for as long as 2029 assuming he wins the next two Presidential races. Erdogan argued … Read more
When I last wrote about the Turkish lira in mid-January, USD/TRY had pulled back sharply off a parabolic run-up. The iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR) was also at the beginning of a dramatic bottoming pattern that was later confirmed with a close above its 50-day moving average (DMA). Source: FreeStockCharts.com When the Central Bank of the … Read more
Desperate times bring out the creativity. On Thursday, January 12, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) effectively tightened monetary policy by canceling its weekly auction used to fund banks. On top of this move, Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, likened Turkey’s forex predicament to a fight against economic terrorism. Deutsche Bank (DB) … Read more
“The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) closely monitors the excessive volatility in the markets and will take necessary measures against unhealthy price formations that are inconsistent with economic fundamentals. Banks’ borrowing limits at the Interbank Money Market established within the CBRT have been lowered to TL 22 billion to be effective as … Read more
“The slowdown in aggregate demand contributes to the fall in inflation. Yet, exchange rate movements due to recently heightened global uncertainty and volatility pose upside risks on the inflation outlook. The Committee decided to implement monetary tightening to contain adverse impact of these developments on expectations and the pricing behavior.” – The Central Bank of … Read more
The U.S. Dollar index hit 100 on an intraday basis for the first time since March 16th, the day after the index closed at a 12-year high. The index faded back to a close of 99.73 at the end of the U.S. trading day. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The U.S. dollar’s steady, albeit slow, strengthening is happening … Read more
The trade on the blow-off top on USD/TRY, the U.S. dollar versus the Turkish lira, turned out to be short-lived. Now, the lira looks poised for a lot more weakness. USD/TRY never cracked the low of the day from the blow-off top, and now it is starting into a new uptrend. Source: FreeStockCharts.com Last week, … Read more
Did the misery for the Turkish lira (USD/TRY) just reach a climactic end? The Turkish lira quickly lost favor in the wake of more political turmoil in Turkey. Most of the losses actually occurred right before midnight (Eastern U.S. time) and within minutes. This delayed but sharp reaction made the move look highly suspect. The … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 31, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) A month ago, I pointed out how the Turkish lira had reversed all its post-election losses. I argued that the lira was due to resume its weakness as the Central Bank … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 14, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Turkey held national elections on June 7th. The events were well-covered given Turkey’s central location amid a set of geopolitical hotspots and its (former) place as a fast-growing emerging market. Source: … Read more