ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Toll Brothers (TOL) is more than halfway through reversing a surprising post-earnings gap up a week and a half ago. The 13.8% post-earnings gain surprised me because the message from TOL was little different than its messages in the past two earnings reports that have coincided with an extended sell-off in the stock. Source: FreeStockCharts.com … Read more
In the immediate wake of the details of the Republican plan for tax reform, home builders sold off sharply. While the stock market quickly moved on, the angst in the industry continued. Toll Brothers (TOL) CEO Douglas C. Yearley plainly claimed that the proposal to reduce the cap on the mortgage interest deduction would harm … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data released in March, 2016. At the time, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was accompanying the market on an extended rally from the February lows. Resistance at the 200-day moving average (DMA) slowed down the advance. In April, ITB cleanly broke through resistance only to come to … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 13, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost a month ago, analysts from KBW described a seasonal trade on home builders. {snip} I took a slightly different perspective on this seasonality to make the pattern stand out and … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 27, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Toll Brothers (TOL) had the misfortune of reporting its third quarter 2015 earnings in the middle of a severe market sell-off. {snip} Source: FreeStockCharts.com The selling in TOL plunged the stock … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 31, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Friday, December 28, 2012, Nightly Business Report interviewed Martin Connor, the CFO of luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL). I am on the lookout for 2013 guidance from homebuilders, so this … Read more
Today has been a wild day in the financial markets, and I almost hesitate to jot down my thoughts before the close of trading. However, I will be shutting things down to get the weekend started as soon as possible, so I am writing now while thoughts remain fresh. There is no one theme I … Read more