T2108 Update (March 1, 2013) – Bearish Signals Still Lurk Behind Market Chop

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

Global Markets Synchronize Into A State of Calm That Does NOT Equate to Safety

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 19, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Nassim Taleb has been on a tour promoting his new book “Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder.” He provides related links and interviews on his Antifragile web site where he … Read more

With A Rate Decision Looming, Weakening Australian Dollar Sends Poor Signal for Stocks

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 1, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) While all eyes are trained on U.S. economic data this week, Australians are looking ahead to Monday, February 4th when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) makes its next statement on … Read more

Time to Pare Back Bullish Positions In the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost two weeks ago, I noted that as long as the Australian dollar (FXA) maintained its stubborn strength, it made sense to play the currency long versus the weakening Japanese yen … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Balks On Inflation – Dollar’s Rise Provides Fresh Shorting Opportunity

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The timing of The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate cuts is starting to look like a random number generator. In its latest statement on monetary policy (Nov 6th in Australia), … Read more

The Reserve Bank of Australia Signals It Will Follow Market Forecasts For Lower Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Tonight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its minutes for its October 2nd meeting where it cut interest rates 25 basis points to 3.25%. I was looking for a more … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Downgrades Economic Conditions, Eyes Lower Currency

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 2, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to stand pat on rates in its latest statement on monetary policy. Instead, the RBA cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.25% … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Emphasizes Overall Resilience Of the Australian Economy

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 25, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) After the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its monetary policy statement on September 4th, I noted how the loudest part of the statement was left unsaid. The RBA raised no … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Provides Some Relief for the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 4, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Sunday, September 2, the Australian dollar (FXA) drifted back to flatline for the year against the U.S. dollar. This move prompted me to tweet the following: “$AUDUSD close to flat … Read more

RBA Identifies Australian Dollar’s Support from Foreign Demand for Bonds

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 21, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes of its last monetary policy decision during which it seemed to declare a soft landing for China. I took particular interest in … Read more