ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The stock market started the week in familiar melt-up mode, supported by a (temporary) thaw in the economic war between the U.S. and China. Optimism persisted until the Federal Reserve weighed in with its latest announcement on monetary policy, when Chair Jerome Powell balked at the idea of a December rate cut. … Read more
Exactly one month ago, I explained I would stick with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) despite disappointing weakness in shares. I looked through the short-term bearish signal of a technical breakdown (below the 50-day moving average (DMA)) and pinned my expectations on AMD continuing to catchup with a red hot, AI-driven semiconductor industry. When AMD soared … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market leaned into a melt-up as a constant stream of IPOs signaled risk-on appetite even as a massive downward revisions in jobs in the 12 months through March, 2025 implied more than expected economic weakness ahead. Rate cuts beckon as a result of this broadening weakness, and Wall Street has … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The month of August featured three distinctly strong expansions of market breadth. The last expansion featured the largest single-day expansion I have ever seen. In between these episodes, the market showed signs of exhaustion. The latest exhaustion is centered on the AI trade. NVDA earnings slightly disappointed and included slowing revenue growth … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market transitioned from a nervous calm to a confident calm. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 hit fresh all-time highs faster than I could have expected during the depths of the tariff drama, trauma, and noise. Nvidia (NVDA) led the way with a mid-week breakout to all-time highs. The market’s confident calm … Read more