From Destocking to Restocking, Joy Global Weakens Case for a Commodities Crash

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 20, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, Joy Global (JOY) reported its fourth quarter and 2011 operating results and provided some valuable details on the outlook for commodities in 2012. JOY blames inventory destocking for the … Read more

Australia Remains Attractive As RBA Quietly Opens Door to Dropping Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian dollar has fallen so far, so fast over the past month that I failed to notice a major change in tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on monetary policy until now. … Read more

Chart Review: Silver Breaks Out Again

Finally, silver re-awakens. After a near straight-line recovery from August’s lows, silver broke out with a gap up to new highs for the month. Source: stockcharts.com The ETF for silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV), is of course following a similar pattern. With silver (and gold) being one of the few assets working on the … Read more

British Business Secretary Cable Supports More QE If Consumer Demand Remains Weak

On July 24, British Business Secretary Vince Cable was interviewed on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show. During this interview, Cable made the case for further quantitative easing (QE) if consumer demand in the UK continues to weaken. While he was quick to point out that the Bank of England runs independently, he provided a ringing … Read more

Bernanke’s Musings Excite Gold and Reawaken Silver

“Fed May Launch New Round of Stimulus.” So rang the headlines. The Federal Reserve seemed poised to launch another round of quantitative easing if only it had a weak economy to generate the proper excuse. An Associate Press article about steel stocks suggested that the market’s rally was specifically about the prospect of potential stimulus: … Read more

A Case for the Importance of Headline Inflation from James Bullard

(Originally appeared in Inflation Watch) The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis just published an article written by James Bullard, a non-voting member of the Federal Reserve and President of the St. Louis Fed, called “Measuring Inflation: The Core Is Rotten.” It is based on a speech Bullard delivered two months ago to the Money … Read more

Governor King Still Gives Me Plenty of Reason for Remaining Bearish on the Pound

On June 15, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King spoke at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet for Bankers and Merchants of the City of London at the Mansion House. The speech covered very familiar themes for King and the Bank of England. King first acknowledged the squeeze on the economy in the United Kingdom: “The challenge … Read more

The Federal Reserve May Choose to Ignore the Inflation Expectations of Households

First, Bernanke made it clear he thinks gold is not a good indicator of inflation expectations. Now, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has produced research that could convince the Fed to insulate itself from the inflation expectations of average Americans in “Household Inflation Expectations and the Price of Oil: It’s Déjà Vu All … Read more