ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Speculators have not been this bullish on the euro since at least 2008. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders These charts reveal a distinct sentiment shift on the euro this year. Since 2008, speculators spent the majority of the time as firm euro bears. The new high in net long positioning going into 2018 signals … Read more
In mid-July, the Australian dollar (FXA) surged higher after a hawkish interpretation of the RBA minutes. Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), tried to walk the market off its enthusiasm. The pause was temporary. By the early September RBA meeting, AUD/USD hit a 2+ year high, albeit partially because of … Read more
A month ago, I wrote about the near seasonal pattern of speculators accumulating net long contracts in gold and silver from July troughs to October peaks. THIS year, the speculators started up on schedule but aborted the mission as net longs peaked well ahead of October. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders So seasonal patterns … Read more
On September 19th, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes from its last meeting on monetary policy (September 5, 2017). Iron ore was perhaps the biggest headline coming out of those minutes. Surprisingly, the RBA called a top in the price of iron ore (emphasis mine): “Iron ore prices had been supported at … Read more
There is nothing like a significantly stronger currency to get central banks to take pause. I cannot recall in recent memory a time where a little known (or under-appreciated?) Deputy Director of the Bank of Canada made a notable impact on the Canadian dollar. Such an event occurred on Monday, September 18th. Deputy Director Timothy … Read more