A Crescendo Looms for the Australian Dollar Even As Traders Cast About for New Forex Leader

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 6, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Monday night (June 4th, Tuesday morning in Australia), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave its cash rate steady at 2.75%. The statement contained no new news and … Read more

A Mystifying Rate Cut By the Reserve Bank of Australia

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 7, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Tonight (morning of May 7th in Australia), the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its interest rate to 2.75% whereas the consensus assumed that rates would stay steady at 3.0%. While the … Read more

Week of Major Currency Shifts Flips Me Bullish Australian and British Currencies

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 7, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} The market seemed to convulse on the notion that the Fed could actually end asset purchases but seemed to ignore the conditional of a much improved labor market and improving … Read more

The Reserve Bank of Australia Explains the Link Between the Currency and Interest Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 25, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) On February 22nd, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens spoke with the Australian House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. {snip} In his opening statement, Stevens delivered a nice … Read more

A Stealth Rally for the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 13, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) It took a record low on the GBP/USD currency pair [British pound (FXB) versus the Australian dollar (FXA)] for me to realize that the Australian dollar has been in “stealth rally” … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Holds Rates, Leaving Currency To Drift Lower

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 4, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In its latest statement on monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said nothing new. The RBA left rates unchanged at 3% while at the same time making it clear … Read more

The Bank of England Stares Down A Conundrum On Inflation

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 8, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) On February 7th, The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England (BoE) decided once again to peg interest rates at 0.5%. The projections and explanations for inflation most interested … Read more

With A Rate Decision Looming, Weakening Australian Dollar Sends Poor Signal for Stocks

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 1, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) While all eyes are trained on U.S. economic data this week, Australians are looking ahead to Monday, February 4th when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) makes its next statement on … Read more

T2108 Update (January 22, 2013) – Melt Up

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

This Time SHOULD Be Different – Fade the Japanese Yen

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Japanese yen (FXY) traders have been here before. Earlier this year, the U.S. dollar (UUP) ripped from historic lows against the yen around 76 to a peak just above 84 in just … Read more