Monetary Easing, The Counterfactual, And A Lower Dollar In the Balance

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 11, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has made the case for further monetary easing simple and straightforward. Unless some miracle happens in the economy to send growth hurtling upward (presidential campaign promises, … Read more

T2108 Update (August 24, 2012) – Pavlovian Market

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 67.2% VIX Status: 15.2 … Read more

The Reserve Bank of Australia Declares Soft-Landing In China, Focuses On Europe

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 7, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The immediate response to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest monetary policy decision was muted, but I think the statement spoke volumes. The RBA essentially declared a soft economic landing in … Read more

By Closing Above Its “QE2 Reference Price”, Dollar Increases Pressure On Fed

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I did not think it would happen, but the dollar index finally closed above its “QE2 reference price.” {snip} I have contended that if the dollar index reached current levels, the … Read more

Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart: “QE3 Is An Option”

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 29, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On June 27, 2012, Nightly Business Report interviewed Dennis Lockhart, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve about the U.S. economy. During the interview, Lockhart indicated that the economic anecdotes he hears … Read more

Remaining Bearish On Australian Dollar As The RBA Braces For More Financial Turmoil

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 3, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In keeping interest rates at 3.50%, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) issued a relatively mundane statement on monetary policy on July 3rd. This statement contained many of the same themes … Read more

Yellen’s Case for More Easing Primes Fed to Act Sooner Than Later

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 15, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip}…I decided to summarize the last two speeches from U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen given her strong advocacy for pro-active intervention on behalf of the U.S. economy…{snip}… I … Read more

T2108 Update (June 14, 2012) – High Stakes

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 29% VIX Status: 21.7 … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Cuts Rates Again And Gives Weak Forward Guidance

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 5, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Futures estimated a 63% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would cut rates by 50 basis points tonight, but the RBA went with the analyst consensus of a 25 … Read more

It’s Official – The RBA Is Working the Australian Dollar Lower

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 30, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) It’s official – the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is trying to work the Australian dollar lower. In a surprise move, the RBA cut rates 50 basis points to 3.75%. Expectations … Read more