Above the 40 (June 20, 2018) – A Stock Market Divergence Made for Bears, Bulls, and Volatile Narratives

AT40 = 65.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 12.8 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary The stock market is oozing with divergences as a result of global trade wars, especially the escalating spat between … Read more

Acacia Communications: A Cautionary Tale of Early Secondaries and a Concentrated Customer Base

About 18 months ago, I made a bearish case for Acacia Communications (ACIA) based on the timing, pricing, and nature of a secondary stock offering that was sandwiched between ACIA’s optimistic earnings guidance and subsequent news that major customer ZTE Corp. significantly reduced its guidance. The stock has never been the same and has drifted … Read more

Bitcoin Frenzy: A Panicked Bottom Interrupts An Orderly Decline from All-Time Highs

Buy the crash. Sell the all-time high. Rinse. Repeat. This has been a time-honored trading strategy for Bitcoin that, in hindsight, has offered a very low-risk way of profiting form the manic rise of Bitcoin. Today, the famed cryptocurrency was down as much as 30% before bouncing back with a furious rally. The trading strategy … Read more

Above the 40 (December 13, 2017) – A Time to Rest With New Signs Of Stock Market Fatigue

AT40 = 57.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 58.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.2 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The stock market is looking a little tired. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at another all-time high on Tuesday and at … Read more

California Housing Crisis Means Tri Pointe Is Not Worried About Tax Reform

Tri Pointe Group (TPH) was the last home builder stock I sold as a part of my last cycle of home builder investments. It was also my longest-standing holding; I only exited after the sell-off inspired by the first release of details for tax reform stopped me out of the stock. The stock had a … Read more