ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
AT40 Status: 66.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 Status: 69.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX Status: 11.1 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary For the first time since December, the S&P 500 (SPY) has displayed strong follow-through to a break out to fresh … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 16, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Three weeks ago, I was clearly premature in declaring an “ominous sentiment shift” in the Australian dollar (FXA). Since then, speculators have buckled down and returned to growing net long positions … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 25, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The latest data on speculator forex positioning showed a sudden and abrupt change in sentiment on the Australian dollar (FXA). {snip} If this sharp drop in net longs turns into net … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 3, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kicked off central bank action for August with a rate cut to a fresh record low of 1.50%. Financial markets were anticipating a cut with … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 22, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Sometimes the test of a change in sentiment is not in the pace of the new trend, but instead in the behavior after that trend first gets tested. {snip} Source: FreeStockCharts.com … Read more
(This is an excerpt from a LONG overdue article on commodities I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 18, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week was a great week for a pairs trade in iron ore. I love this trade => Oil, Iron Ore & Gold Correlation: A Mining Pair … Read more
“The Australian dollar has appreciated somewhat recently. In part, this reflects some increase in commodity prices, but monetary developments elsewhere in the world have also played a role. Under present circumstances, an appreciating exchange rate could complicate the adjustment under way in the economy.” – Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision, April 5, … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 8, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) On March 1, 2016, Glencore (GLNCY) announced its preliminary 2015 earnings results. During a media conference call, CEO Ivan Glasenberg declared a bottom for commodities. In the subsequent investor/analyst conference call, … Read more
It finally happened. Rio Tinto (RIO), a major producer of commodities like iron ore, has started to back off its generous dividend payout policy. In its latest earnings statement, RIO announced its total dividend for 2015 will come to 215 U.S. cents per share, the same as it paid out in 2014. Over the past … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more